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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.