Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
