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Initially, the former US president appeared to adopt a strong stance on Ukraine. After issuing threats of "serious ramifications" last August in case Putin persisted hindering ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually imposed substantial restrictions on Russia's biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This move substantially impacted Putin's capability to finance his military invasion in the region.

However, with his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for the conflict, which was created by both nations' representatives lacking Ukraine's or European participation, he has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's proposal would essentially benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the plan effectively compromise that essential sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his real-estate experience, the former president continues to treat the war as a basic border issue, implying ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. However, Putin's war is not only about occupying a charred swath of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it stops acts as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that Putin's increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While keeping in place the presently divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would force Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk province. In addition to favoring Russia with area that its troops have been unable to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of fighting, this giveaway would render Ukraine's defenses critically weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that are a essential barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv should he eventually choose to resume the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a action that would make renewed fighting easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the scale of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal places no such constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan declares: "Every extremist doctrine and activities must be rejected and banned." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. However, Trump sets no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the plan has the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack other states" and to "establish in legislation its policy of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent treaties in the history – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a truce and a return of seized areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should we trust Putin this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the proposal threatens a "strong joint armed reaction" if Russia renew its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics vary from vague to troubling. The initiative would not just block Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from rebuilding his diminished forces, restocking, and attacking again.

International Reaction

A separate side agreement according to sources would provide the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. But in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against renewed invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react militarily to Putin's aggression, something they have {not